USDA ERS Dairy Outlook: September 2022

Chris Zoller, Extension Educator, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Tuscarawas County, Ohio State University Extension

The United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) released its Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook on September 16.  This article will summarize the dairy outlook.  To read the complete report, please visit this link: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/g445cd121/9w033934q/5138kq43q/LDP-M-339.pdf.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported July milk production of 19.140 billion pounds produced by an average of 9.416 million head of dairy cattle.  July milk production per cow averaged 2,033 pounds.

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The all-milk price in July was reported at $25.70/cwt, $1.20 lower than June but $7.90 above July 2021.  Alfalfa hay in July was $31/ton higher than in June and $70/ton higher compared to June 2021, coming in at $276/ton.  The milk-feed ratio has been declining since February 2022.  While the January to June 2022 all-milk price increased, it was more than offset by the increase in feed prices.

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Dairy Forecast: 2022

The average number of cows has been reduced to 9.4 million head, but average production per cow came in higher at 24,075 lb/year.  Reduced cow numbers and even production per cow, the milk production forecast has been reduced 0.3 billion to 226.5 billion pounds.

Type

Projected Price for 2022

Class III

$21.65/cwt

Class IV

$24.45/cwt

All-milk

$25.45/cwt

Dairy Forecast: 2023

USDA ERS is expecting the rate of growth in cow numbers to slow.  For 2023, they are projecting 9,415 million head – a reduction of 20,000 head.  Milk per cow in 2023 is forecasted to be unchanged at 24,300 lb/cow and total milk production revised at 0.4 billion pounds lower to 228.8 billion pounds.

Type

Projected Price for 2023

Class III

$19.70/cwt

Class IV

$20.85/cwt

All-milk

$22.70/cwt

Planning Ahead

Planning and budgeting are always important, and continued uncertainty makes these tasks even more critical.  Most inputs will likely increase in cost compared to 2022 and USDA is currently projecting a decline in milk price.  I encourage you to utilize OSU Extension Enterprise Budgets (https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farm-management/enterprise-budgets), meet with your veterinarian, consultants, and Extension Educator to critically evaluate the need for each input.