Buckeye Dairy News: VOLUME 27: ISSUE 5
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Dairy Dollars: Feed Prices, Nutrient Costs, and Milk Income
Andie Majewski, Graduate Research Associate, Department of Animal Sciences, The Ohio State University
As of the end of August, 10% of Ohio’s corn was ranked as excellent while 50% of Ohio’s corn was ranked as good, about 30% was ranked as fair, and the remaining 10% was ranked as either poor or very poor quality, according to the 2025 Corn Yield Forecast for Ohio (https://agcrops.osu.edu/newsletter/corn-newsletter/2025-30/2025-corn-yield-forecast-ohio-august-26). In the latter half of the summer, much of Ohio has experienced abnormally dry weather conditions, potentially forcing an earlier corn silage harvest compared to recent years and maybe reducing corn yield. In this current issue of the Buckeye Dairy News, the price of corn silage was updated as it is each year around the time of harvest. The price of corn silage is established based on many factors. These factors include, but are not limited to, the yield of the corn crop, the price of corn grain, its nutritive value, as well as the overall cost of harvest. The current average price of the 32-38% dry matter (DM) corn silage is $4.24/bu or $51.48/ton. This price is $0.10/bu greater than the average 2024 price which was $4.14/bu.
Figure 1. Actual and predicted cost of feedstuffs with 75% confidence interval (CI) of 21 feed commodities fed on Ohio Dairy Farms; September 24, 2025. Feedstuffs that are priced above the upper prediction price limit are overpriced (red bars). Feedstuffs that fall within the upper and lower limits of the predicted prices are breakeven feeds (grey bars). Feedstuffs that are priced below the lower prediction price limit are considered a bargain (green bars).Economic Value of Feeds
Figure 1 displays the costs for the 21 reported commodities in Ohio. These results were produced by SESAMETM for the central Ohio region on September 24, 2025. In Figure 1, the bargain feedstuffs (green), the overpriced feedstuffs (red), and the breakeven feedstuffs (grey) are displayed, along with their average costs and predicted costs. These prices and estimates are from a point in time and their economic classification may change from what is reported, though they remain as useful a tool to predict the cost of feedstuff changes in a ration and to summarize market trends in the Ohio region. While bargain commodities can have a place in a dairy cattle ration, it is important to consider the investment opportunity that might come from feeding “overpriced” feedstuffs, as they may help to improve herd performance. Currently, the price of corn products is generally a bargain while soy products are generally overpriced. This is almost a direct contrast to the trends that were reported in the July issue, where corn grain and corn gluten meal were considered overpriced and some protein sources like soybean meal and soybean expellers could be considered adequately priced or a bargain. This fluctuation is not abnormal, and the reduction in price of corn based products likely reflect the influx in supply of these feedstuffs as we move through the harvest season.
The appraisal set, shown in Table 1, predicts the prices for the commodities that did not have a current local price. These commodity prices were predicted by SESAMETM and represent the estimated value at one specific point in time and are therefore subject to change. These values may be used as a benchmark if you are considering purchasing these ingredients for your dairy farm.
Table 1. Estimated feedstuffs prices not reported for Ohio, September 24, 2025.
Feed Nutrient PricesThe cost of net energy of lactation (NEL) increased by about $0.042/lb since the last report in July, though the cost of metabolizable protein (MP) and the cost of physically effective fiber (e-NDF) decreased by $0.11/lb and $0.06/lb, respectively. Values of nutrients are shown in table 2.
Table 2. Prices of nutrients for Ohio dairy farms, September 24, 2025, compared to July 28, 2025.
Milk and Milk Component PricesThe Class III milk price increased by $0.11/cwt compared to the price reported in July. The price of butter fat remained about the same, only decreasing by $0.01/lb. However, the milk protein price decreased more dramatically, by $0.57/lb. The Cow-Jones Index estimates the profitability of milk production, considering factors including the nutrient input costs displayed in Table 2, cow production metrics, and the current milk and component prices which are shown in Table 3. The prediction formula uses a 1500 lb cow, producing milk with 4.09% fat and 3.22% protein. The formula does not include factors that may affect profitability such as the cost of replacement and cull cows in the herd. This month, the income over nutrient cost (IONC) for cows milking 85 and 70 lb/day is about $12.42 and $11.94 /cwt, respectively. Both estimates are expected to be profitable, though the profit margins are smaller compared to the profitability estimates in the previous issue.
Table 3. Prices of milk and milk components, sourced from the Federal Marketing Order 33, for Ohio dairy farms, September 24, 2025, compared to July 28, 2025.
In September, many commonly fed corn based feedstuffs were priced as bargains while some protein sources were overpriced. Additionally, the milk price marginally increased, while milk component prices decreased since July. These factors suggest the current benefits of investing in corn-based feedstuffs to capitalize on these bargains. -
Rumen Buffers, DCAD, and Enhancing Milkfat Production
Dr. Kirby Krogstad, Assistant Professor, Department of Animal Sciences, The Ohio State University
Background
Enhancing milkfat production continues to be a vital and economically important goal for dairy farmers. Milkfat production is very responsive to a host of nutritional decisions, including carbohydrates, amino acids, and forage feeding. Other important nutritional decisions that affect milk fat production include managing the rumen environment through use of buffers or alkalizers and increasing the dietary cation anion difference (DCAD). The objective of this article is to review some scientific literature on buffers, alkalizers, and DCAD to help enhance milk fat production.Feeding Buffers
The term ruminal buffer is used broadly in dairy nutrition, but it is not necessarily the most accurate term. Feed supplements that affect rumen pH can be categorized as true buffers or alkalizers. True buffers (i.e., sodium bicarbonate) resist changes in ruminal pH but they do not necessarily increase ruminal pH, while alkalizers may increase rumen pH (i.e., magnesium oxide). We’ll discuss these slightly different supplements as a broad category of feed additives to manage ruminal pH.
Sodium Bicarbonate
Sodium bicarbonate is one of the most prominent ruminal buffers fed to cattle, and there are a lot of data demonstrating its efficacy when feeding dairy cattle. One project supplemented 0.43 lb/day of sodium bicarbonate to lactating dairy cattle and increased the minimum rumen pH and reduced the time the rumen was less than 5.5 compared to a non-buffered diet. Another study demonstrated that feeding 0.40 lb/day of sodium bicarbonate increased rumen pH and dramatically reduced time with a pH <5.5; in the same experiment, sodium bicarbonate increased both milk fat concentration and yield. Reducing ruminal pH does not always occur though; Bach et al. (2018) subjected cows to increasing concentrations of barley while feeding sodium bicarbonate and did not observe differences in rumen pH or time spent with low rumen pH.
Providing the sodium bicarbonate increases milk fat concentration and milk yield (Cruywagen et al., 2015; Neville et al., 2019). A meta-analysis investigating sodium bicarbonate supplementation in dairy cattle suggests that providing approximately 0.45 lb/day of sodium bicarbonate per cow increases milk fat concentration and milk fat yield (Hu and Murphy, 2005).
Table 1. Partial budget for feeding sodium bicarbonate at 0.45 lbs/cow/d in place of soybean hulls and assuming a 100 g/d increase in milk fat yield.
Item $/cow/day Cost of Sodium bicarbonate (A) 0.10 Increased revenue from milk fat (B) 0.63 Net change (B - A) 0.53 The question of sodium bicarbonate, like any other rumen buffer supplement, should come back to a return on investment. The increased milk fat in response to sodium bicarbonate ranged from 50 to 160 g/day, depending on the data cited. For our partial budget (Table 1), we’ll assume a100 g/day increase in milk fat when feeding 0.45 lb/day of sodium bicarbonate. The cost for the sodium bicarbonate was assumed at $610/ton, which results in $0.14/cow/day of ration cost. When including the soybean hulls that were removed ($175/ton) to make space for the sodium bicarbonate, the net cost of the sodium bicarbonate supplementation is $0.10/cow/day. The gain in milk fat equates to a $0.63/cow/day increase in milk fat revenue and the net return on investment of supplementing sodium bicarbonate would be $0.53/cow/day.
Calcareous Marine Algae
Another option for moderating rumen pH is through feeding calcareous marine algae (CMA). CMA has very strong buffering capacity and often increases rumen pH when fed to dairy cattle (Cruywagen et al., 2015; Neville et al., 2019). The feeding rate for CMA in these studies was approximately 0.20 lb/day. In both experiments, feeding CMA increased rumen pH and reduced time with a low pH more than feeding sodium bicarbonate. It also increased milk fat production by 90 and 270 g in these experiments, which shows that it can have commercial benefits when feeding it to dairy cattle. It is usually more expensive than sodium bicarbonate (~$1400/ton), but it does provide different nutrients in addition to its buffering effects.
Mg Oxide
Mg oxide can aid in modulating rumen pH by acting as an alkalizer. Bach et al. (2018) investigated Mg oxide supplementation to maintain rumen pH when increasing barley, and they observed that providing Mg oxide resulted in greater rumen pH and less time spent with low rumen pH when feeding an additional 3 kg/day of barley. Mg oxide appeared more effective at maintaining rumen pH than sodium bicarbonate in this project. These investigators replicated these results for Mg oxide later on and also observed that Mg oxide supplementation increased NDF digestibility when supplied in diets with the greatest grain inclusion (Bach et al., 2023). In these experiments, Mg oxide was provided at 0.13 and 0.20 lb/day, respectively.
DCAD
Dietary cation-anion difference (DCAD) gets most of its attention for its importance in prefresh rations and controlling hypocalcemia, but DCAD is also critical for increasing milkfat production. Increasing DCAD is also related to feeding ruminal buffers, especially sodium or potassium-based buffers, because they can increase DCAD. So, the effects of some ruminal buffering products may be a result of both buffering ruminal pH and increasing dietary DCAD concentration.
DCAD is usually calculated as follows: DCAD = Na + K – Cl – S. In prefresh cows, we aim for a negative total diet DCAD, but in lactating cows, it must be positive. How positive you ask? Based on the data (Iwaniuk and Erdman, 2015), milk fat yield and concentration continue to increase as DCAD increases up to 500 mEq/kg of diet DM, while DMI and milk yield appear to plateau between 200 and 300 mEq/kg of diet DM. Based on their results, aiming for a lactating dairy cow DCAD ≥300 mEq/kg of DM will increase milk fat production.
How can you increase the DCAD of your ration? Feed more Na and K or feed less Cl and S while still meeting nutrient requirements for each. Some common supplement options are sodium bicarbonate, sodium sesquinate, potassium carbonate, and potassium bicarbonate. Remember, chloride has a negative DCAD so chloride-based salts like sodium or potassium chloride do not increase DCAD like the carbonate versions.
Certain feeds can also have substantial impacts on DCAD. For example, dry distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) has a negative DCAD, which contributes to reductions in milk fat when feeding DDGS in rations that are not properly formulated (Clark et al., 2024). In general, corn-based ingredients like DDGS and corn have lower DCAD than soy-based ingredients like soybean meal and soybean hulls. Formulate the rations accordingly!
Take Homes
Milk fat continues to be a critical part of the dairy producer’s milk check, and we need to use every tool in the toolbox to aid in maximizing milk fat production. Buffers and DCAD considerations when feeding diets can help increase milk fat production. When investigating buffers, you must consider the costs and the benefits. We did the math for sodium bicarbonate as an example, but the same approach can be used for any rumen buffer product. I highly encourage you to base your partial budgets on peer-reviewed literature. Based on the data for rumen buffering and milk fat production, feeding rates of some buffer products are listed below:
- Sodium bicarbonate: 0.4 lb/day
- Calcareous marine algae: 0.2 lb/day
- Mg Oxide: 0.15 lb/day
Also, ensure the DCAD of your ration is >300 mEq/kg to help increase milk fat production.
Properly buffered diets with adequate DCAD will help your herd reach your next milk fat milestone!
References
Bach, A., M. Baudon, G. Elcoso, J. Viejo, and A. Courillon. 2023. Effects on rumen pH and feed intake of a dietary concentrate challenge in cows fed rations containing pH modulators with different neutralizing capacity. J. Dairy Sci. 106(7):4580-4598. 10.3168/jds.2022-22734
Bach, A., I. Guasch, G. Elcoso, J. Duclos, and H. Khelil-Arfa. 2018. Modulation of rumen pH by sodium bicarbonate and a blend of different sources of magnesium oxide in lactating dairy cows submitted to a concentrate challenge. J. Dairy Sci. 101(11):9777-9788. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2017-14353
Clark, K. L., K. Park, and C. Lee. 2024. Exploring the cause of reduced production responses to feeding corn dried distillers grains in lactating dairy cows. J. Dairy Sci. 107(9):6717-6731. 10.3168/jds.2023-24356
Cruywagen, C. W., S. Taylor, M. M. Beya, and T. Calitz. 2015. The effect of buffering dairy cow diets with limestone, calcareous marine algae, or sodium bicarbonate on ruminal pH profiles, production responses, and rumen fermentation. J. Dairy Sci. 98(8):5506-5514. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2014-8875
Hu, W., and M. R. Murphy. 2005. Statistical evaluation of early- and mid-lactation dairy cow responses to dietary sodium bicarbonate addition. Anim. Feed Sci. Technol. 119(1):43-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anifeedsci.2004.12.005
Iwaniuk, M. E. and R. A. Erdman. 2015. Intake, milk production, ruminal, and feed efficiency responses to dietary cation-anion difference by lactating dairy cows. J. Dairy Sci. 98(12):8973-8985. 10.3168/jds.2015-9949
Neville, E. W., A. G. Fahey, V. P. Gath, B. P. Molloy, S. J. Taylor, and F. J. Mulligan. 2019. The effect of calcareous marine algae, with or without marine magnesium oxide, and sodium bicarbonate on rumen pH and milk production in mid-lactation dairy cows. J. Dairy Sci. 102(9):8027-8039. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-16244
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Winter Annual Cereal Grain Forage Success Starts Now
Jason Hartschuh, Assistant Professor, OSU Extension Field Specialist, Dairy Management and Precision Livestock, Ohio State University
Winter annual forages can be an economical feed for dairy cows and heifers. The four most common winter annuals are rye, triticale, wheat, and barley. Of these four crops, barley is the most challenging to grow, as it has less winter survivability if planted late. The benefit to barley is a slightly higher crude protein (CP) and smaller stems, allowing this species to dry better than the other three for dry hay. Barley CP stays higher even as the crop matures, with similar protein levels at pollination to the other species' protein just before the head emerges. In a 3-year study conducted at the Ohio State research stations in Jackson, Fremont, and Custer, cereal rye had the highest yield when harvested just before the head emerges, averaging 1.92 ton/acre of dry matter (DM). Harvesting later, once the head emerged, increased the dry matter yield of triticale the most, with a yield average of 2.81 ton/acre of DM, with a top location average for triticale at 5 ton/acre. In this study, 50 lb/acre of spring nitrogen was applied. Yield and quality data from this trial can be found in Table 1. Species that have a 10.0 listed after them were harvested at Feeks 10.0 or head in the boot (not emerged yet, but at the top of the plant, ready to emerge), while those with a 10.5 listed after them were harvested at Feeks 10.5, head fully emerged and in flower.
Table 1: Winter annual cereal grain species yield and quality average over 3 years and 3 locations. Results in the same column with the same letter statistically had the same yield or quality.
Treatment
DM Yield (ton/acre)
Crude Protein
(% of DM)NDF
(% of DM)TDN
(% of DM)Barley 10.0
1.62 cd
13.71 a
53.15 d
63.6 ab
Barley 10.5
1.98 bcd
12.06 b
61.64 b
58.4 de
Hybrid Rye 10.0
1.37 d
11.11 bc
50.36 d
69.5 a
Hybrid Rye 10.5
1.85 bcd
9.28 d
65.89 a
56.9 ef
Rye 10.0
1.92 bcd
10.89 bc
56.96 c
61.8 bc
Rye 10.5
2.34 ab
9.60 d
68.52 a
55.2 f
Triticale 10.0
1.88 bcd
10.90 bc
57.17 c
61.2 c
Triticale 10.5
2.81 a
9.36 d
68.22 a
55.3 f
Wheat 10.0
1.79 bcd
11.55 b
46.36 e
65.7 a
Wheat 10.5
2.26 abc
10.20 cd
57.39 c
60.3 cd
Not only did species affect yield, but it also impacted forage quality. Barley and wheat had higher CP and total digestible nutrients than both triticale and wheat at either harvest timing. NDF was also lower for barley and wheat. While barley is a good feed, we lost our stand to winter injury at all locations one year and at one location an additional year. All varieties in this study were with variety not stated.
Winter annual cereal forage varieties exhibit significant differences in yield and maturity, even within the same species. Within species, yield and quality significantly differed between varieties. One cereal rye variety in a Penn State variety trial yielded 3.63 ton/acre of DM while another only yielded 2.91 ton/acre. The cereal rye varieties also had a 14-day maturity window between varieties. When planting cereal rye, we often grow a variety unstated, as it is cheaper and easier to get and frequently used as a cover crop.
Triticale also has huge differences in yield, but all varieties mature in a much tighter number of days than the cereal rye. The top yielding triticale variety in the Penn State trial was BCT 19004 with a yield of 4.94 ton/acre of DM with 11.62% CP. The lowest yielding variety was BCT 19003 with a yield of 3.29 ton/acre of DM and 11.46% CP. Many of the other varieties you may be planting yield somewhere in the middle, like TriCal Thor that yielded 4.17 ton/acre of DM with a CP of 14.17%. There are many more varieties available that will do well in Ohio. When selecting varieties, look for agronomic information on winter survival and disease tolerance.
Nitrogen management is a critical part of winter annual forage production. Over the last 2 years, we conducted a trial in Fremont, Ohio, at the North Central Research Station on nitrogen and sulfur management on cereal rye. Our research showed higher yields of 0.27 ton/acre of DM in 2022 and 1.5 ton/acre more DM in 2023 when 20 lb/acre of nitrogen was applied in the fall at planting after soybeans, compared to no additional nitrogen. Fall nitrogen had little effect on forage quality. We also compared two spring nitrogen rates of 50 and 70 lb/acre plus 20 lb/acre of sulfur in the spring. Spring nitrogen rates of 70 lb/acre did not affect yield compared to 50 lb/acre in 2022, but more spring nitrogen in 2023 increased yields by a ton when sulfur was also applied. Full trial results for 2023 can be found in Table 2. Spring nitrogen had a significant increase in CP. Seventy pounds per acre of spring nitrogen increased CP by 0.5 to 2% over 50 lb/acre of spring nitrogen. Sulfur application in the spring of 20 lb/acre significantly increased yield in 2023 when 70 lb/acre of nitrogen was applied. Our trials only achieved CP values of 12.3%. Our top-yielding treatment was 6.8 ton/acre of DM and had 90 lb/acre of total nitrogen applied. This crop removed 270 lb of nitrogen. In our trial field without historical manure applications, we need to continue to investigate if CP would increase from more nitrogen applied but be careful that the crop doesn’t lodge.
Table 2. Cereal rye yield and quality in 2023 affected by nitrogen rate (lb/acre) timing and sulfur application (lb/acre). Results in the same column with the same letter had statistically the same yield and quality.1
2023 Cereal Rye Nitrogen and Sulfur Treatment on Yield and Quality
Treatments
TDN (%)
CP (%)
NDF (%)
Yield
(tons/ac DM)Fall N-0#, Spring N-70#
64.7 ab
12.30 ab
56.5 b
4.99 d
Fall N-0#, Spring N-50#
65.1 a
12.22 ab
56.0 b
4.77 d
Fall N-20#, Spring N-50#,
64.4 ab
11.30 ab
57.9 ab
6.28 bc
Fall N-20#, Spring N-50#, Spring S-20#
64.3 ab
11.25 b
58.5 ab
5.82 c
Fall N-20#, Spring N-70#
65.0 a
11.72 ab
56.2 b
6.53 ab
Fall N-20#, Spring N-20#, Spring S-20#
63.4 b
12.32 a
59.9 a
6.86 a
LSD
1.4
1.00
2.7
0.65
CV (%)
1.8
7.20
3.9
7.90
1TDN = Total digestible nutrients, CP = crude protein, NDF = neutral detergent fiber, DM = dry matter, LSD = least significant difference, and CV = coefficient of variation.For the last two years, we have been researching even higher fall and spring nitrogen rates from 0 to 90 lb/acre in the fall and an additional 25 to 100 lb/acre in the spring. Both spring and fall nitrogen are required to maximize yield. Over winter tilling increased until 60 lb/acre of fall nitrogen was applied. Total ground cover at spring green-up was 65% for 60 and 90 lb/acre of nitrogen, while 30 lb/acre averaged 55% ground cover, and no nitrogen only provided 40% cover. Fall nitrogen increase in ground cover translated into a yield increase, with 30 lb/acre of fall nitrogen increasing yield, but only maximizing yield when 100 lb/acre of spring nitrogen was also applied. Figure 1 below illustrates the effect of fall and spring nitrogen combinations on yield (bars with the same letters statistically yielded the same). Spring nitrogen was a critical factor in increasing CP; however, 90 lb/acre of fall nitrogen also increased CP. For all fall nitrogen applications, except the 90-lb/acre rate, spring CP was maximized when 100 lb/acre of spring nitrogen was applied. Crude protein for the 90-lb/acre fall application rate was the same for both the 75 and 100-lb/acre spring nitrogen rate.
Figure 1. Dry matter tonnage yield for cereal rye based on the combination of spring (first number) and fall (second number) nitrogen rates. Bars with the same letters have the same statistical yield.
When trying to maximize forage profitability per acre, consider managing your forage crop more like an agronomic crop. Consider variety selection for your needs by looking at both yield and nutritional value. Also, consider nitrogen rate and timing. Your nitrogen may come from commercial fertilizer or liquid manure. Work from New York also showed that unless there was residual nitrogen left over from the previous crop, a fall nitrogen application increased tillering and forage yield. This work also showed that if the field didn’t have fall manure or a history of manure application, a spring nitrogen application increased yield. Winter annual cereal grains should be planted ½ to1½ inches deep based on soil moisture; it can be surface spread but 20 to 30% higher seeding rates are needed. When drilled, seeding rates should be 2.0 to 2.5 bushel/acre, with higher rates needed when planting is delayed until late fall. By increasing your winter cereal grain forage management, you can return even more to your operation's profitability per acre. -
Rumination Time - The Impacts of Dietary and Environmental Factors
Bradley Gotto, Undergraduate Student and Dr. Kirby Krogstad, Assistant Professor, Department of Animal Sciences, The Ohio State University
Introduction
Rumination is an important process in cattle and is associated with a high functioning rumen. As a cow ingests and chews its feed, the feed particles enter the rumen where microbial degradation begins. The feed will then be regurgitated for the cow to further chew and swallow again. The chewing of “the cud”, or the re-chewing of regurgitated feed, is what we call rumination. Rumination is impacted by numerous factors on the farm, including temperature-humidity index (THI), feed particle size, feed nutrient composition, and cow comfort.
Monitoring Rumination
Monitoring rumination is helpful for dairy farmers to detect illness, stress, or nutritional challenges in their herd. There are many methods used to monitor rumination. An “old school” approach to rumination monitoring is to conduct “cud counts”, where the number of cows ruminating in a pen are counted, with the goal being 60% of lying cows ruminating at any one time. With technological improvements in the dairy industry, activity collars, ear tags, and rumen boluses have become more common for monitoring rumination. These technologies track different data like head and jaw movements (collar or ear tags) to track time spent ruminating. Rumen boluses are administered orally and track data from inside the cow's reticulorumen.
An ongoing challenge for these technologies is to utilize the information generated by rumination monitoring technologies for economically impactful decisions. Our goal was to improve how to use and apply the data gathered from these rumination tracking technologies. We also wanted to understand whether rumination time and rumination variance were affected by different farm factors.
Our Study Objectives and Hypothesis
The objective was to determine associations of rumination time and rumination variance with environmental and dietary factors that were measured on the farm (Krauss Dairy Farm, Wooster, OH). Our initial hypothesis was that increasing THI would have a negative association with daily rumination time and would have a positive association with rumination variance. We expected that when performing the Penn State Particle Separator (PSPS) tests on each pen’s ration, an increased amount of the ration in the 19 mm sieve would be negatively associated with daily rumination time, and an increased amount of the ration in the 8 mm sieve would have a positive association on the daily rumination time. We also expected that an increased variance of particle size across the bunk would be positively associated with rumination variance measured for each pen.
Methodology
From 5/12/2025 to 7/31/2025, we gathered data from a collar-based rumination monitoring system (SCR, Allflex US, Madison, WI) at Krauss Dairy Farm. The animals were housed in a 4-row freestall barn with a 1:1 bed to cow stocking density, providing a non-competitive environment for the animals to access feed and lay down. The farm milks approximately 190 cows twice daily and feeds once daily. The Holstein and Jersey cows were housed in different barns.
Daily pen averages for rumination time, rumination variance, days in milk, milk yield, and activity data were collected from the herd management system. Daily pen dry matter intake (DMI), feed delivery time, and feed refusal rate were collected from the farm’s feeding program. Every Monday, footage from time lapse cameras in each barn were collected to analyze out of feed time and feed pushup occurrence. The THI data were collected from sensors placed in the center of each freestall barn. Twice each week, the PSPS test was performed on 3 locations across the feed bunk for each pen. The PSPS was also used to assess the particle size of each forage fed in the milk cow ration (corn silage, haylage, and baleage). Temperatures were taken from 5 locations across the feed bunk for each pen using an infrared temperature sensor. Temperatures were also taken from 5 locations on each silage face (corn silage and haylage).
We then calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficients for rumination time and rumination variance with each farm factor to identify potential factors that are related to rumination time and rumination variance.
Correlations
Correlations are a simple statistical method that we used to assess the strength of the relationships between different variables. The greater the correlation is between two factors, the stronger the relationship is. A positive correlation signifies that as one factor increases, the other will also increase. A negative correlation signifies that as one factor increases, the other will decrease. As the value approaches 1.0, the strength of the correlation is increasing. Table 1 lists the cutoffs we used for describing correlations.
Table 1. Strengths of correlation and adjectives used to describe the correlation.
Correlation Description 1.00 Perfect 0.70-0.99 Very High 0.50-0.69 Substantial 0.30-0.49 Moderate 0.10-0.29 Low 0.01-0.09 Negligible Results
Rumination is Higher in Holstein Cows
Through the summer, we observed that rumination time was greater in Holstein than Jersey cows. Pen 1, the early lactation Holstein cows, averaged 535 minutes/day of rumination. Pen 4, the late lactation Holstein cows, averaged 559 minutes/day of rumination. Pen 5, the peak lactation Holstein cows, averaged 546 minutes/day of rumination. Pen 8, the first lactation Holstein cows, averaged 526 minutes/day of rumination. Pen 21, the Jersey cows, averaged 418 minutes/day of rumination. Figure 1 shows the daily average rumination time for each group throughout the data collection period.
Figure 1. Average daily rumination time by pen at Krauss Dairy Farm. Rumination Variance Differs by Management Group
Rumination variance was greatest in pen 1, averaging 98 min/day. Pen 5 was the next highest, averaging 76 min/day, and pen 8 averaged 68 min/day. Pen 4 averaged only 52 min/day. Pen 21, the Jersey cows, averaged 52 min/day. Figure 2A and Figure 2B show the daily rumination variance on a min/day and as a percentage of total rumination for each pen.
Figure 2. Average daily rumination variance for each pen. Panel A is in variance on a min/day, while panel B displays variance as a proportion of the total rumination time. Rumination Time is Associated with Greater Milk Production
When analyzing milk yield versus rumination time, we observed that a greater rumination time is associated with a greater milk yield. Our data suggest that for every 33 minutes/day of additional rumination time, we would expect a 1.0 lb/day increase in milk yield (Figure 3). The relationship between milk yield and rumination time was strongest in the early and peak lactation groups. Alternatively, when analyzing milk yield versus rumination variance, we observed that a greater rumination variance was associated with reduced milk yield. Our data suggest that for every 3 minute/day increase in rumination variance, we expect a 1.0 lb/day decrease in milk production (Figure 4).
Figure 3. Increasing rumination time is associated with increased milk yields.
Figure 4. Increasing rumination variance is associated with reduced milk yields. Correlations of Rumination with Management Factors
When analyzing the correlations, a substantial positive correlation exists between rumination time and milk yield (r = 0.64, P = <0.001; Table 2). We also observed a very high positive correlation between dry matter intake (DMI) and rumination time (r = 0.78, P = <0.001). A very high negative correlation exists between activity and rumination time (r = -0.85, P = <0.001). Conversely, there was a moderate negative correlation between rumination variance and days in milk (r = -0.47, P = <0.001; Table 3).
Table 2. Correlations of daily pen-level production variables with rumination time (CI = confidence interval).
Variable Correlation 95% CI P-value Days in milk 0.15 0.05-0.24 0.004 Activity -0.85 -0.87- -0.82 <0.001 DMI 0.78 0.75-0.82 <0.001 Milk 0.64 0.58-0.69 <0.001 FE 0.26 0.17-0.35 <0.001 Adj. FE 0.40 0.32-0.48 <0.001 Refusal rate 0.12 0.03-0.22 0.01 Out of feed time -0.13 -0.23- -0.01 0.02 Table 3. Correlations of daily pen-level production variables with rumination variance (CI = confidence interval).
Variable Correlation 95% CI P-value Days in milk -0.47 -0.55 - -0.39 <0.001 Activity -0.09 -0.19-0.00 0.06 DMI -0.12 -0.22- -0.02 0.01 Milk 0.18 0.09-0.28 <0.001 FE 0.33 0.24-0.42 <0.001 Adj. FE 0.14 0.04-0.23 0.006 Refusal rate 0.0 -0.10-0.10 0.93 Out of feed time -0.21 -0.30- -0.10 <0.001 Correlations of Rumination with Dietary and Environmental Factors
Upon evaluating correlations between rumination time and dietary characteristics, a moderate negative correlation was found between the feed retained on the 8 mm (%), and rumination time (r = -0.43, P = <0.001; Table 4). We also observed moderate positive correlation between 8 mm (%), and rumination variance (r = 0.37, P = <0.001; Table 5) and a moderate negative correlation between 19 mm (%), and rumination variance (r = -0.41, P = <0.001)
Table 4. Correlations of daily pen-level dietary variables with rumination time.
Variable Correlation 95% CI P-value 19 mm, % 0.14 -0.9-0.35 0.25 8 mm, % -0.43 -0.60- -0.22 <0.001 4 mm, % -0.28 -0.48- -0.06 0.01 Pan, % 0.40 0.19-0.58 <0.001 19 mm CV 0.07 -0.16-0.29 0.60 8 mm CV 0.07 0.00-0.43 0.05 4 mm CV 0.11 -0.12-0.33 0.33 Pan CV 0.13 -0.10-0.35 0.27 Feed bunk temperature 0.03 -0.20-0.26 0.79 Table 5. Correlations of daily pen-level dietary variables with rumination variance.
Variable Correlation 95% CI P-value 19 mm, % -0.41 -0.59- -0.19 <0.001 8 mm, % 0.37 0.14-0.55 <0.001 4 mm, % 0.04 -0.19-0.27 0.76 Pan, % 0.23 0.00-0.44 0.06 19 mm CV 0.06 -0.18-0.28 0.65 8 mm CV -0.08 -0.31-0.16 0.54 4 mm CV 0.10 -0.14-0.32 0.44 Pan CV 0.12 -0.11-0.35 0.31 Feed bunk temperature 0.30 0.06-0.51 0.01 We did not observe significant correlations between environmental variables with rumination time (Table 6). There was a low-to-moderate positive correlation between rumination variance and THI. As THI increased, rumination variance also increased (Table 7).
Table 6. Correlations of daily pen-level environmental variables with rumination time.
Variable Correlation 95% CI P-value Average temperature 0.07 -0.02-0.17 0.17 Minimum temperature 0.06 -0.03-0.15 0.22 Maximum temperature 0.09 -0.01-0.19 0.07 THI 0.06 -0.03-0.16 0.21 Minimum THI 0.04 -0.06-0.14 0.44 Maximum THI 0.08 -0.01-0.17 0.10 Table 7. Correlations of daily pen-level environmental variables with rumination variance.
Variable Correlation 95% CI P-value Average temperature 0.29 0.20-0.38 <0.001 Minimum temperature 0.27 0.18-0.36 <0.001 Maximum temperature 0.28 0.19-0.37 <0.001 THI 0.31 0.22-0.40 <0.001 Minimum THI 0.30 0.20-0.38 <0.001 Maximum THI 0.31 0.22-0.40 <0.001 Conclusions
We observed that diet particle size may be associated with rumination time, but it was not as we expected. The 8 mm screen of the PSPS was negatively associated with rumination time (r = -0.43, P = <0.001) and positively associated with rumination variance (r = 0.37, P = <0.001). We suspect that this may be related to how our cows were grouped and the diets they were fed. Pen 4 was fed a high amount of baleage in their ration, which reduced the proportion of feed retained on the 8 mm sieve and increased the proportion on the 19 mm sieve, while also being the pen with the highest rumination time and rumination variance.
Perhaps our most intriguing finding was that the environmental factors had negligible correlations with rumination time. However, we observed that as THI and temperature increased, rumination variance also increased. Perhaps, rumination variance may be used as an indicator of heat stress on dairy farms.
Rumination time and variance are associated with milk production, and this can be helpful to look at while managing your herd. Increased rumination variance may suggest that something is wrong with the cows and that you may be leaving milk on the table. While rumination time and variance are useful data points, they should not be used or viewed in isolation. They should be used within the constellation of other data points at your disposal to determine what may be going on with a group of cows.
Works Cited
Antanaitis, R., et al. The impacts of heat stress on rumination, drinking, and locomotory behavior, as registered by innovative technologies, and acid-base balance in fresh multiparous dairy cows. Animals: An Open Access Journal from MDPI, U.S. National Library of Medicine, 13 Apr. 2024, pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11047379/.
Grant, R.J. Chewing behavior of dairy cows: Practical perspectives on ..., www.appliedanimalscience.org/article/S2590-2865(23)00027-7/pdf. Accessed 11 Aug. 2025.
MacPherson, L. The benefits of rumination monitoring: Helping farmers in Scotland. FAS, 19 Dec. 2023, www.fas.scot/article/the-benefits-of-rumination-monitoring/.
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Ultrasonography: A Practical, Non-invasive Tool for Monitoring Mammary Gland Development
Evy Tobolski and Elizabeth Plunkett, Graduate Research Associates, Department of Animal Sciences, The Ohio State University
Raising and selecting quality replacements is a necessity for every dairy operation. Selectively breeding for higher milk production has its advantages, but some fail to recognize that genetic merit doesn’t always account for enhanced mammary growth and development, and often, early life nutrition and management can influence the mammary gland more substantially. Advancing technology has led to the exploration of real-time ultrasonography, a non-invasive tool to monitor growth and development across time. The expense associated with raising heifers is worth utilizing developing technology available to explore opportunities to select for more profitable heifers.
Ultrasonography in Heifers
Initial growth and development of the mammary gland begins in utero around day 30 of gestation in dairy cattle. At birth, a rudimentary mammary system is present, consisting of the mammary parenchyma (PAR) and the mammary fat pad (MFP). Epithelial tissue and its surrounding stromal elements make up PAR, which has the capacity to make and secrete milk. The MFP is primarily composed of stromal elements meant for support and structure. Previous research has placed heavy emphasis on studying mammary development in heifers, which requires their timely euthanasia. However, to understand how certain factors that occur during mammary growth and development (e.g., heat stress) impact the secretory capacity of the mammary gland, we must allow these research animals to reach lactation. Studies like these require a tremendous amount of time and money, both of which are limited resources. The use of ultrasound technology, largely used in dairy cows for assessment of the reproductive tract, has now enabled researchers to examine mammary growth and development without the need for early euthanasia, allowing animals to progress into lactation to study their subsequent performance.
A study done by Vang et al. (2024) examined the use of ultrasound technology as a tool to monitor mammary gland growth and development in Holstein heifers, assessing the influence of diet on PAR for the first 8 weeks of life. Thirty Holstein heifer calves were randomly assigned to a pair-fed high protein/fat (27% CP, 20% fat) or low protein/fat (22% CP, 15% fat) milk replacer diet in which calves were fed twice daily one gallon of high protein/fat milk replacer in the high treatment group and 2 quarts of low protein/fat milk replacer in the low treatment group. On day 7, a textured starter (18% CP) was introduced. A Mindray Ultrasound, typically used to determine reproductive status, was used to examine the PAR and MFP areas of all four glands twice weekly from birth through 8 weeks.
Through the use of ultrasonographic imaging, researchers demonstrated that the total PAR area increased in both treatments. However, heifer calves fed the high protein/fat diet had increased growth compared to the low protein/fat diet calves. Mammary PAR area was similar between both treatment groups during the first 2 weeks, but beginning in week 3, the high protein/fat diet calves displayed larger PAR and MFP areas and continued with this dramatic growth through week 8 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Image of the rear left quarters of paired 8-week-old heifer calves on the low protein/fat treatment (A) and the high protein/fat treatment (B). PAR is outlined in pink and MFP in yellow. The white bar measures 1 cm.
What Do These Results Mean?
From this study, ultrasonographic imaging was successfully used to measure PAR and MFP areas from birth through 8 weeks of age. The results from this study, particularly the finding of increased PAR area of calves fed a high protein/fat milk replacer, demonstrate the effectiveness of ultrasonographic imaging of the mammary gland. This highlights how early dietary choices can influence mammary growth and development. Additionally, this study suggests that features defined through ultrasonographic images of the mammary gland can be a powerful tool to monitor the growth and development of the PAR and MFP in heifers without the need for euthanasia. This can encourage the monitoring of these parameters to extend to lactation and allows researchers to begin making correlations to lactation performance.
The ability to capture mammary growth rates of calves using ultrasonography has the potential to be a worthwhile opportunity for dairy producers to explore. If later lactation performance can be inferred from early use of ultrasonography, producers can begin to select replacement heifers based on yet another parameter. Allowing for early decision making to select for heifers with the highest secretory potential and removal of those that are sub-par. This would also allow you to evaluate the impact of your young stock nutrition and management strategies and enable you to make necessary changes sooner.
Why Should you Start to Care?
With the advancements made in quantifying the growth and development of the mammary gland of heifers, researchers are starting to use this technology to determine treatment options for mastitis. Mastitis, inflammation of the mammary gland, primarily results from an intramammary infection. In a study done by Suzuki et al. (2020), ultrasonographic imaging was used to identify abnormal mammary tissues in cows with clinical mastitis. Further work in this area could lead to the use of ultrasound examinations to predict mastitis outcomes early on and influence treatment decisions. There is a potential economic benefit for producers and the opportunity for early decision-making. While further research is needed to confirm preliminary findings, exploring new advancements in technology that can allow producers to make more informed decisions is critical to the ever-evolving dairy industry.
Sources
Suzuki, N. et al. 2020. Outcome prediction from the first examination in clinical mastitis using ultrasonography in dairy cows.” Animal Science Journal 91:e13452. https://doi.org/10.1111/asj.13452.
Vang, A. et al. 2024. Monitoring mammary gland development in preweaning dairy heifers using ultrasound imaging. Journal of Dairy Science Communications 6:725–28. https://doi.org/10.3168/jdsc.2024-0586.
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Current Status of New World Screwworm (NWS) Infestations in the U.S.
Dr. Gustavo M. Schuenemann, Department of Veterinary Preventive Medicine, The Ohio State University
The NWS has been largely eradicated in the United States for over 50 years, but a current outbreak in Central America and Mexico is moving closer to the U.S. On August 18, 2025, the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) issued the emergency declaration after determining that NWS “has a significant potential to affect national security or the health and security of United States citizens living abroad and that involves New World Screwworm”. This emergency declaration allows veterinarians to use certain treatments under extra-label use provisions to help control potential infestations.
What is NWS?
It is a parasitic fly (Cochliomyia hominivorax) that lays eggs in and on open wounds and mucous membranes of warm-blooded animals. When larvae hatch (maggot), they burrow into the flesh of these animals and eat healthy living tissue, causing the myiasis. This infestation is seasonal in livestock, with outbreaks linked to warm conditions that favor the fly's life cycle and host availability, often peaking in the warmer spring and summer months and being suppressed by cold winters. NWS can infest all warm-blooded animals, including livestock, pets, wildlife, humans, and even birds.
What to Look for in my Animals?
Be alert for the following clinical signs that may indicate NWS infestation:
- Unusual or irritated behavior (restlessness, excessive movement)
- Isolation from the herd or flock (reduced interaction)
- Frequent head shaking or rubbing against objects
- Foul odor with strong smell of tissue decay
- Visible fly larvae (maggots) in wounds or natural body openings
- Bloody or pus-like discharge from wounds
Even small wounds (e.g., castration, dehorning, navel in newborns) can become infested. EARLY DETECTION AND TREATMENT ARE CRITICAL.
Source: New World Screwworm by USDA-APHIS Here is the Photo Gallery. Warning: Graphic images!
NWS Life Cycle, click here.
NWS Information in English and Spanish.
What are the Treatment Options?
Treatment for NWS involves killing and removing larvae from wounds using topical parasiticides, wound dressings, and insecticides, with potential for systemic treatments. Currently, there are no animal drugs approved by the FDA to treat or prevent of NWS myiasis in animals. However, the emergency declaration by the Secretary of HHS allowed FDA to authorize the emergency use of certain animal drugs to treat NWS infestation. This requires a prescription from a licensed veterinarian due to the emergency use authorization and the need for extra-label use of these drugs under a valid Veterinary-Client-Patient Relationship (VCPR). Farmers and livestock owners should work closely with their herd veterinarian to access and use these emergency treatments.
How to Prevent NWS?
The most effective way to protect the United States from NWS is to prevent its introduction. To help prevent NWS infestation in your animals, follow these key steps:
- Monitor animals closely for early signs of infestation.
- Promptly treat all wounds, including umbilical cords of newborn animals, using an approved insecticide or would dressing to prevent egg-laying by adult flies.
- Ensure returning pets from international travel are properly inspected for NWS before entering the U.S.
- Requirements for pet dogs returning from Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) or Screwworm-affected countries.
When it comes to protecting your animals from preventable diseases like NWS, early detection and timely treatment are critical to protect your animals. After all, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure!
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Value Added Dairy Beef
John Yost, Agriculture and Natural Resources Educator, Wayne County, The Ohio State University
I may be showing my age, but about 20 years ago, the office supply company Staples launched a marketing campaign titled “That was easy”. It referenced their opinion that ordering supplies through them was in fact easy. They even sold toy easy buttons that when you pushed them, they would say “That was easy”. As a side note, my parents still have one of these buttons. Some would say that live cattle marketing is as easy as it has ever been. You can take just about anything to the auction and get a great price. Who would have ever dreamed that a 3-day-old calf would bring in excess of $1,500?
Although the current calf shortage has led to buyers lowering their standards, the beef industry needs preconditioned calves. Decades of feedlot research has proven that precondition calves have lower morbidity and mortality rates, higher average daily gains, and have a greater chance of grading choice or better at harvest. In the beef industry, a standard conditioning program consists of castration and dehorning, weaned for a minimum of 45 days, creep fed and/or grain supplemented during the backgrounding period, and a 2 dose vaccination program that targets Clostridial and respiratory illnesses. You will also hear these preconditioning programs referred to as value added.
In September of 2023 a team of researchers, led by Drs. Darrel Peel and Kellie Rapier from Oklahoma State University, published a research report titled “Value Indicators in Feeder Cattle: An Analysis of Multi-State Auction Data”. The project evaluated the relationship of animal characteristics and producer management practices on the cash value of feeder cattle. You can read the full paper at https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ValueIndicatorsinFeederCattleAuctionData.pdf.
In their analysis of auction market prices, the team found that cattle buyers were paying premiums for cattle that had been preconditioned. Specifically, they identified that bull calves were valued $7.39/cwt lower, on average, than steers. Calves weaned 30 days or more ($4.48/cwt), vaccinated ($1.97/cwt), and dehorned or polled ($8.47/cwt) were all valued higher than their contemporaries that had not been managed the same. As we look back over the last 12 years, the added value of pre-conditioning has fluctuated between an average premium of $8.68 to $23.36/cwt (Figure 1).
History has shown that buyers have rewarded producers for preconditioning calves, regardless of market performance. In a recent (September 2025) Drovers Newsletter article, Kellie Raper revisited this very issue. Kellie referenced the same chart (Figure 1) with yearly premium values reported. She pointed out that during the same 12-year period, that premium values moved with market price. She pointed out that producers in the Southern Plains had been dealing with drought conditions from 2012 to 2015. In 2014, market prices increased substantially, and premium values followed suit. It is Dr. Raper’s opinion that there will be premiums to be found for preconditioned cattle currently and certainly into the near future.It may not be feasible for most dairy producers to implement a full value-added preconditioning program that mirrors their beef colleagues. You may not have the facilities, or the means to invest in new facilities, that will allow you to keep calves on farm until they are 100 to 150 days old. However, there are practices that you could implement that will add value to your calves. Producers could consider castration and dehorning of calves with time for them to heal prior to sale, fully wean calves and transition to a hay diet with grain supplementation, and group calves as soon as possible to allow them to adjust to a different social structure. It is also pointed out in Dr. Peel’s report that groups of any size brought a premium over a single calf.
Regardless of what practices you could possibility implement, the most important thing you can do is to provide your bull and beef on dairy calves with high quality colostrum at birth. Treat these calves as you would your heifers. The goal should be to get 4 to 6 quarts of 100 g IgG colostrum in them during the first 6 hours of life. Also, because the immune system of most calves will not respond to vaccines until they about 4 months old, you should consult with your veterinarian to see if administering and intranasal respiratory vaccine is appropriate for your operation.
Another area that would warrant more attention is the marketing of our cull cows. The price producers see at the stock sale are dependent on two main factors: body condition score (BCS) and mobility/health. The USDA grades culls into breakers, boners, leans, and lights. Using the beef cattle body condition scoring system of 1 to 9 (1 being emaciated and 9 morbidly obese), we would classify breakers as a BCS 7 or greater, boners as a 5 to 7, leans a 1 to 4, and lights being those small framed cows with low carcass weight.
The marketing “sweet spot” is for those cows that grade out into the boner category. These are the cows that have a BCS of 5 to 7, or a 3 to 4 using the dairy scoring system. If we use the most recent USDA National Weekly Direct Cow and Bull Report, there is potentially a $11 to $39/cwt premium for this grade. Most of the reasons you would choose to cull a cow will also result in her being on the thin side. On average, there is about 120 lb of body weight between body condition scores. Producers need to determine if the higher sale price potential is worth keeping these cows around for another 50 to 75 days. You will need to know your feed costs, as well as having the space to hold them. The other benefit will be to dry them off when you pull them out of the milking string. Drying them off will dramatically lower their feed requirements and help them put on weight a little faster. It will also help in the eyes of the buyer and our consumers. Cows with a full udder are slightly discounted due to the buyer not wanting to pay for the extra weight. There is also the welfare component that these cows will be stressed from their milk production between the time of last milking and their arrival at the harvest floor.
In conclusion, producers have been rewarded for adding value to their cows and calves prior to marketing. Although we have unprecedented live cattle prices, there is nothing to tell us that producers will not be able to capture premiums for their added expense and labor. I will say that it will not fit every operation. You need to know your current cost of production, especially feeding costs, accurately estimate the added cost of implementing these programs, and the market potential in your area before making the decision to keep these cows and calves on the farm longer. Producers will also need to consider the advantage this can be to their reputation as cattle suppliers. Those in the beef industry that have consistently, and successfully, added value to their cattle have been rewarded by becoming the preferred supplier for some buyers. This will be an advantage when markets tighten up.
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Milk Price Outlook for the Remainder of 2025
Dr. Jason Hartschuh, Assistant Professor, OSU Extension Field Specialist, Dairy Management and Precision Livestock, Ohio State University
The latest USDA Dairy outlook shows a continued abundant milk supply and elevated dairy product stocks, supporting a cautious near-term price outlook. The 2025 all‑milk price forecast is $21.35/cwt for the year and forecasts for the 2026 all‑milk at $20.40/cwt. Milk production: year‑to‑date, 2025 milk output is above 2024 levels, driven by higher milk per cow and an expanded cow herd. In July, year-over-year milk production increased by 3.4%, with the cow herd growing by 159,000 head and a 34-lb annual increase in milk per cow. The Dairy Margin Coverage milk margin for July of 2025 was $1.39/cwt lower than the year prior but still about the $9.50/cwt margin level.
Exports remain a crucial component of the U.S. milk market. July 2025 set a new record high for milk-equivalent milk fat, totaling 1,602 million pounds. Increased exports are from cheese, butter, dry whey, and lactose; however, skim milk products experienced significant declines. Mexico remained the primary destination for cheese and dry skim milk products. The primary destination for dry whey is still China and Canada. While butter exports have increased, they remain relatively low, with the majority of the demand increase coming from Canada. Imports of dairy products to the US for July 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, declined by 201 million pounds on a milk fat basis, with the most significant reductions in cheese, butter, and infant formula.
Looking ahead to 2026, if feed costs remain low, the cow herd is expected to continue to expand with a slight increase in milk production per cow. This continued dairy herd expansion could lead to the largest U.S dairy herd in over 30 years. Imports are expected to remain low, while lower wholesale dairy product prices will continue to drive increases in exports.
Beef prices continue to be a critical source of income and are altering the economic signals for milk market expansion. When barn space is available, cows that would have historically been culled for low production are given one chance to get pregnant with beef semen, and those that would have been culled while pregnant for not covering their cost of production stay to have a calf. Holstein bull and heifer cull calves are selling for over $1,000 a head, and the top crossbreed beef calves are bringing in $1,500 a head. Even cull cows are a significant revenue stream, with well-conditioned cows bringing $2500 a head. To capture this premium, some farms now have cull cow conditioning pens. The high beef prices are sending signals for expansion that could plague the industry with an oversupply of milk in the future and significant challenges when the beef market softens.
Utilizing risk management strategies for both inputs, along with milk, cull calves, and cull cows, will be crucial as milk prices decline and to protect against future declines in the beef market. With lower feed costs, Dairy Margin Coverage is not projected to fall below the $9.50/cwt margin during 2025. However, if feed prices increase or milk prices decline more, the margin may fall below $9.50/cwt during 2026.Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP) can be used on a quarterly basis to hedge against price declines. Developing a continuous protection plan with DRP, utilizing both Class III and Class IV prices, is a critical risk management tool. The Class IV milk price for the first quarter of 2026 has declined dramatically since August 1st, when the 95% coverage level was $18.22/cwt. However, by September 24th, that coverage had dropped to $14.90/cwt. While Class III has also declined, this decline was not as significant, at only $0.80/cwt. Develop a marketing plan now and stick with it. Study market signals, but don’t wish for a better price when the signal indicates a flat to lower prices.
Livestock revenue protection can also be utilized for bull calves heading into the beef market through the feeder cattle unborn dairy option. This tool can be used to set a price floor for up to the following year. The other risk management tool is for cull cows in 13 weeks using a Fed cattle cull cows’ coverage. Utilize the tools at your disposal to safeguard your farm against potential revenue declines and cost increases.