Andie Majewski, Graduate Research Associate, Department of Animal Sciences, The Ohio State University
As the new year kicks off, it is fitting to take a step back to look at the market trends that occurred throughout the past year. Over the course of 2025, there were large cost fluctuations of individual feedstuffs, as well as within categories of feedstuffs. Figure 1 displays the percent change in the market price of feedstuffs previously reported in the past year’s issues of Dairy Dollars: Feed Prices, Nutrient Costs, and Milk Income. Broadly, the price of soy products experienced a cost reduction from May to July of 2025, followed by a cost increase from July through November of 2025. This fluctuation in the cost of soy products may in part be attributed to recent tariffs over the last year putting strain on the U.S. soybean market and reducing the demand for exported soybeans from the U.S. to other countries. This may drive inconsistent soybean prices for Ohio dairy farmers. Corn products demonstrated a great deal of variation from their starting price in January of 2025. The USDA has reported record-high corn production from the recent harvest season. Due to the increased corn yield in 2025, corn futures prices recently took a steep drop, which will likely impact the cost of corn products moving into 2026.
Figure 1. Percent change in the market costs of corn (top graph) and soybean (bottom graph) feedstuffs reported on a bimonthly basis, tracked over the course of 2025.
Figure 2. Actual and predicted cost of 21 feed commodities fed on Ohio dairy farms; January 25, 2026. Feedstuffs that are priced above the upper prediction price limit are overpriced (red bars). Feedstuffs that fall within the upper and lower limits of the predicted prices are breakeven feeds (grey bars). Feedstuffs that are priced below the lower prediction price limit are considered a bargain (green bars).
Economic Value of Feeds
Figure 2 displays the costs for the 21 reported commodities in Ohio. These results were produced by SESAME™ for the central Ohio region on January 25, 2026. The prices and estimates displayed in Figure 2 are from a single point in time; therefore, their economic classification may differ from what is reported in future issues. Nevertheless, they remain a useful tool to predict the cost of a ration based on the incorporated feedstuffs. In the month of January, many of the corn-based products are considered bargains, while all soy-based products are either overpriced or breakeven with the predicted amount.
The appraisal set, shown in Table 1, predicts the prices for commodities that did not have a current local price. These commodity prices were predicted by SESAME™ and represent the estimated value at one specific point in time and are therefore subject to change. These values may be used as a benchmark when considering the purchase of these ingredients.
Table 1. Estimated feedstuffs prices not reported for Ohio, January 25, 2026.
Feed Nutrient Prices
The calculated cost of metabolizable protein (MP) decreased by approximately $0.07/lb since November. The cost of net energy of lactation (NEL) and physically effective fiber (e-NDF) has increased in the past two months, though this increase is rather insignificant at less than $0.01/lb for each nutrient. The economic values of nutrients are shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Prices of nutrients for Ohio dairy farms, January 25, 2026, compared to November 20, 2025.
Milk and Milk Component Prices
Since the last issue, the Class III milk price increased by $0.86/cwt of milk, while butterfat and milk protein prices both decreased by $0.25/lb and $0.42/lb, respectively. The Cow-Jones Index estimates the profitability of milk production, considering factors including the nutrient input costs displayed in Table 2, cow production metrics, and the current milk and component prices shown in Table 3. The prediction formula uses a 1,500-lb cow producing milk with 4.09% fat and 3.22% protein. The formula does not include factors that may affect profitability, such as the cost of replacement and cull cows in the herd. This month, the income over nutrient cost (IONC) for cows milking 85 and 70 lb/day is about $10.07 and 9.59/cwt, respectively. Both estimates are expected to be profitable, despite being significantly smaller profit margins than those reported in November.
Table 3. Prices of milk and milk components, sourced from the Federal Marketing Order 33, for Ohio dairy farms, January 25, 2026, compared to November 20, 2025.
At one month into the new year, many corn products are priced as bargains, while protein products, including most soy products as well as blood meal, may be overpriced. While the Class III milk price increased, milk component prices decreased. These factors highlight the current benefits of investing in some corn products to support milk yield.