Buckeye Dairy News: Volume 5 Issue 1

  1. Dairy Policy and Market Watch

    Dr. Cameron Thraen, Additional milk marketing information by Dr. Thraen

    Policy Watch

    I have just returned from Chicago were a 50 plus group of who's who in the dairy industry gathered for a two-day brainstorming event. Sponsored by Cornell's Dairy Markets and Policy group and by invitation only, representatives from industry, cooperatives, government, and universities got together to look into the industry and policy crystal ball. Here is a condensed list of what these folks see as front-burner items and which every dairy farm family should be aware of and following.

    Federal Milk Marketing Orders: The current pooling arrangements for Class I revenues is just not working and this is creating distortions and unhappiness in the dairy industry. Look for at least some of the industry to begin to get on board with the concept of a national pooling for all Class I revenues. All Class I revenues would be put into a great big pool of dollars and each milk producer would share equally on a hundredweight basis.

    New Class 3 and Class 4 pricing rules: No one (save the USDA/Agricultural Marketing Service) is really ok with the newly adopted, but not yet implemented, pricing rules. Look for a court challenge just as soon as the USDA/AMS announces their implementation.

    Federal Price Support Program: The current program offers no real support as witnessed by Class III prices that were in the mid eight-dollar range in 2000 and 2002. Many in the industry believe that the current (and expensive) Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program would not be needed if the support price program really provided support for the milk price. What to do about this is not clear. Increasing the support price level is most likely out of the question, although some will continue to argue this position. Broad U.S. trade liberalization desires will likely push us toward less support, not more. We may have to be satisfied that we have the program as it is and be ready to save it in the next round of agricultural legislation.

    Trade Liberalization: The World Trade Organization and the current round of new trade talks will dwarf any real concerns or challenges that the dairy industry might present. Trade is a conundrum for the U.S. dairy industry. On the one hand, we do not wish to see a single import item enter this country, yet our industry realizes that we must become players in the international trade field, and to do so, we need lower barriers not higher.

    Market Watch

    In this section of the column, I will provide a short-term outlook for milk component prices, market prices, the MILC payment, and a representative milk check. These forecasts are generated by my staring into my personal crystal ball. However, truth in advertising forces me to tell you that I use information from many varied sources to arrive at my guesses for the future.

    Here is the Class III price outlook from those active in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Futures and Options market.

    Table 1. Futures Class III Prices: Quarterly Average Settle Prices as of 01/07/2003.

    1st Quarter 2003
    2nd Quarter 2003
    3rd Quarter 2003
    4th Quarter 2003
    $10.15
    $11.48
    $12.96

    $12.29

    This market is betting that a combination of weak, if not declining milk production, along with a rebirth in general economic activity, will work down the large supply of butter and cheese and provide a solid third quarter price. If you use the futures markets to hedge the Class III part of your milk check, now is a good time to get some price protection in the summer and autumn months.

    Table 2. Forecast National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) average dairy product prices and the Class III price.

    Dairy Product
    January - March 2003
    April - June 2003
    Grade AA Butter ($/lb)
    $1.1393
    $1.1345
    Cheddar Cheese ($/lb)
    $1.1674
    $1.1387
    Whey ($/lb)
    $0.1780
    $0.1994
    Nonfat Dry Milk Solids ($/lb)
    $0.8349
    $0.8028
    Class III Milk Price
    $10.10
    $9.93
    Producer Price Differential
    $0.97
    $0.96
    MILC Payment Rate
    $1.3470
    $1.5495

    Figure 3. Forecast Average Market Pay Prices for Butterfat, Protein, Other Solids, and Nonfat Solids.


    Milk Component
    January - March 2003
    April - June 2003
    Butterfat ($/lb)
    $1.2493
    $1.2433
    Protein ($/lb)
    $1.8393
    $1.7484
    Other Solids ($/lb)
    $0.0393
    $0.0614
    Nonfat Solids ($/lb)
    $0.6949
    $0.6628

    My analysis suggests that the commercial markets will be weaker than that implied by the current futures contract settlement prices. Note, that I foresee a substantially lower average Class III price for the April to June period than that anticipated by the futures market ($9.93 Class III vs. $11.48). Clearly one of us is wrong. I am betting that the market is over-estimating both the growth in commercial demand and the decline in milk production. If I am correct, then those prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) contracts for April through June look very good, and at least some of your milk should be priced on the CME at this time. Putting together the Class III price plus the producer price differential, the gross milk check price looks to be $11.07 for January through March and $10.89 for April through June. The MILC payment will add another $1.35 and $1.55 to the first 24,000 hundredweight in each period.

  2. Western Dairy Management Conference and Study Tour

    Tom Noyes

    Ohio State University Extension and the Agricultural Technical Institute are coordinating a dairy study tour to the Western Dairy Management Conference in Reno, Nevada followed by a tour of northern California's dairy and agriculture industry. The tour will give participants the opportunity to attend the premier Dairy Management Conference in the country and the opportunity to meet and talk with some of the top dairy managers. The tour to California will afford participants the opportunity to visit some growing and dynamic well-managed dairy farms in the Central Valley north of Sacramento. We also will see other agriculture, such as rice production, alfalfa hay, and grapes and wine. The trip will take us to the coast, the Golden Gate Bridge, and the Muir Woods National Monument redwoods.

    This will be the fifth study trip that Royce Thornton and I have conducted to this conference with a follow-up tour. Each one has been excellent and very memorable. We have airline and hotel reservations made for 20 tour participants. Therefore, the following projected costs are for the first 20 who register and every effort will be made to accommodate additional individuals beyond the first 20 registrants. Spouses and other individuals who would like to participate and not attend the conference will receive a $250 reduction.

    The projected cost per person is:
    Double Room Occupancy: $1,025.00
    Single Room Occupancy: $1,225.00

    TOUR SCHEDULE
    March 11 Flight from Columbus to Sacramento
    Depart 6:40 p.m. - Arrive 10:45 p.m. and stay in Sacramento
    March 12 Drive to Reno 7:00 a.m. and attend Dairy Conference
    March 13 Western Dairy Conference 8:00 a.m. - 12:00 noon
    Afternoon - optional tour to Fallon, Nevada to visit a dairy farm and irrigated alfalfa production
    March 14 Dairy Management Conference 8:00 a.m. - 12:00 noon
    Depart for California by way of Virginia City and Carson City Nevada and Lake Tahoe.
    March 15 Dairy and agriculture visits in Central Valley north of Sacramento
    March 16 Dairy and grape/wine visits, Golden Gate Bridge, Muir Woods redwoods, and the Pacific Ocean.
    March 17 Flight from Sacramento at 12:00 noon - Arrive Columbus at 9:30 p.m.
    If you desire to participate in Western Dairy Study Tour, please call one of the tour hosts right away. A reservation deposit of $650 is due by February 1, 2003 and final payment is due on February 20, 2003. Refunds, minus all incurred costs, will be made for cancellations. Checks should be made payable to: Ohio State ATI Dairy Judging Team and sent to Royce Thornton, OSU/ATI, 1328 Dover Road, Wooster, OH 44691. Reservations can be made by calling Tom Noyes at 330-264-8722 or Royce Thornton at 330-264-3911 ext. 1313.

  3. A New Voice for Ohio Dairy Producers

    Tim Demland, Additional information about Ohio Dairy Producers

     

    Over the course of time, individual dairy producers have disagreed on many issues. With the current availability of technology, wide market fluctuations, and increased regulation, however, all should be able to agree that the challenges of being successful will continue to mount. To help producers meet these challenges, it is widely believed that one voice is best on legislative and regulatory issues.

    In Ohio's past, several different organizations have been representing the interests of their respective memberships, whether being based on marketing preference or supplies and services purchased. To some extent, this representation was effective but with dairy farm numbers decreasing dramatically over the last forty years, even the largest voices have lost a lot of their local strength. Part of this has been due to the trend towards national and global companies. As one state industry leader stated, "we are giving the car keys to another driver." This approach works great when addressing national and global issues, but without close supervision, state and regional issues can easily be overlooked. Also, as organizations grow larger, individuals are less likely to be actively involved.

    During the past year, two organizations that have been speaking on the behalf of dairy producers in Ohio have decided to join forces, uniting their strengths. One organization, the Ohio Dairy Farmers Federation (ODFF), had an established track record of working cooperatively with groups like the Ohio Livestock Coalition and of having great industry support. They also initiated and administered the Ohio Dairy Research Fund. Another group, the Progressive Dairy Producers of Ohio (PDPO), concentrated on educational programming for Ohio's dairy producers in cooperation with Ohio State University. These two groups joined to form the Ohio Dairy Producers, Inc. (ODP).

    During the December 2002 Ohio Dairy Management Conference the Ohio Dairy Producers (ODP) held its "Membership Kick-Off", offering dairy producers and industry representatives the opportunity to sign up for the 2003 membership year. During the event, organizational members COBA, DFA, DHI, and Genex provided "special edition" ODP hats.

    The dairy producers that organized the Ohio Dairy Producer's (ODP) have developed the following mission statement to express their goal of representing all dairy producers in Ohio, regardless of their geographic location, marketing preference, or operation's size:
    "Supporting Ohio's Dairy Production Industry, Optimizing Productivity and Profitability, and Addressing Issues Affecting Dairy Producers"

    Immediate benefits that are available to ODP members are reduced conference and seminar rates at selected OSU and ODP educational events, access to reduced workers compensation group rates, and as announced by Farmshine's editor Dieter Krieg at the Ohio Dairy Management Conference, a two-year subscription to Farmshine's weekly Ag Newspaper. To help foster increased communication in the industry, members will also receive a quarterly ODP newsletter and, for those with fax or email access, a biweekly "ODP Enews Update". These updates will include events and developments that directly affect Ohio's dairy production industry.

    Several types of ODP memberships are available. Memberships are classified as Organizational, Individual Producer, Industry Associate, and Individual Associate memberships. Much like ODFF and PDPO, dairy producer organizations and allied industries form the financial base of the new organization. Organizational memberships are open to dairy producer owned and controlled organizations and associations. The COBA/Select Sires Inc., CRI/Genex, DFA, Ohio DHI, Ohio Jersey Breeders, Ohio Guernsey Breeders, and Ohio Holstein Association are ODP's founding organizational members. Dairy producers affiliated with these groups will be considered as having a "representational" membership and will receive benefits as determined by each representative organization. Each organizational membership is entitled to a seat on the board, and multiple memberships are available to each organization. Dues for each new organizational member are $1000. Industry Associate membership dues are $200 and enables allied industries to be listed as a supporter in many ODP publications.

    Individuals can either join as "Individual producers" (only one membership is required per farm) or as "Individual associates". Individual producer members will have a "direct" membership and will be put on ODP's membership roster to receive future publications. Only individual producers are eligible to vote or run for the 10 producer director seats that are distributed into five geographic areas. Individual associates are not allowed to vote. Both of these membership's dues are $50.

    Other than offering direct immediate benefits to its members, the true benefits of ODP to producers will lie in its collaborative efforts in Legislative Awareness, Regulatory Involvement, and Educational/Extension Programming. The existing Ohio Dairy Research Fund will also be administered by ODP, allowing producers to voluntarily contribute to Extension and research projects that will provide benefits to producers.
    The ODP leadership has already initiated these tasks and continues to develop contacts with Ohio's legislative and regulatory authorities in attempts to improve communication and to inform agencies of Ohio's Dairy Producers' new voice. To become an active apart of Ohio's Dairy future, contact Tim Demland at (419) 523-6294 or demland.2@osu.edu. You can also get more information about the Ohio Dairy Producers on the web at http://putnam.osu.edu/ag/ODP.html.

  4. Federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Releases New Rules for Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO)

    Maurice Eastridge

    On December 16, 2002, the Federal EPA released the new revisions to the Clean Water Act for CAFO. To be considered a CAFO, an operation must first meet the definition of an animal feeding operation (AFO). An operation is an AFO if animals are confined for at least 45 days in a 12-month period and there is no grass or other vegetation in the confinement area during the normal growing season. The CAFO then are categorized as large or medium CAFO. A large dairy CAFO is a dairy AFO with at least 700 dairy cows or 1000 dairy heifers. A medium dairy CAFO is a dairy AFO with at least 200 dairy cows or 300 dairy heifers and either a man-made ditch or pipe carries manure or wastewater from the operation, or the animals come into contact with the surface water running through the area where they are confined. Regardless of the size of the operation, if an AFO is allowing pollutants to surface waters, it may be required to file for a CAFO permit. A CAFO permit requires that you meet certain conditions for the production area (area where animals are housed and manure is stored) and the land application areas. Permits will require you to implement nutrient management plans, with these records needing to be maintained for five years, and submit annual reports to the permitting authority. The permit requirements will be much more strict for large than medium CAFO. Under the new rules, all CAFO will be required to apply for a National Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit, which will require the development of plans for handling, storing, and applying manure and wastewater. This new requirement, nullifies the previous exemption for a CAFO from applying for a NPDES permit if they only discharge during large storms (25-year, 24-hour storm event). In Ohio, the authority to issue permits to a CAFO is with the Ohio Department of Agriculture, Livestock Environmental Permitting Program, 614-387-0470, FAX 614-728-6335, lepp@odant.agri.state.oh.us, . The Ohio EPA has the authority to issue NPDES permits (Division of Surface Waters, 614-644-2021). For more information about the new Federal CAFO rules, go to: http://cfpub.epa.gov/npdes/afo/cafofinalrule.cfm. The Ohio Livestock Coalition has set up two meetings, along with ODA and Ohio EPA, to discuss issues about these new regulations: January 21, Fisher Auditorium, Wooster, 7:00 pm; January 22, auditorium of the Lake Branch Campus of Wright State University, St. Mary's, 7:00 pm.

  5. Working With Creditors When Times Are Tight

    Dianne Shoemaker

    A dairy farm may operate with no debt and a few do. The majority of dairy farms, however, use some form of credit to finance their operations. Credit use ranges from long-term mortgages to finance the purchase of land, to loans for buildings, cattle, machinery, or equipment, to operating lines of credit , and to interest charges on open account balances. As a result of poor milk prices and poor crops in 2002, some farms have found themselves owing more money than they have been able to cash flow.

    Symptoms include balances on open accounts that are higher than normal, existing lines of credit that are at maximum, loan payments made late or missed, family living that may have been dramatically reduced and/or no cash in the checking account. This situation is uncomfortable for the farm family and to those that they owe money. How can both parties work through these situations? Three important actions for both parties are to talk, evaluate, talk, plan, and talk.

    Talk it over. The best time to start talking to creditors is when you first see a problem developing. Many customers of commercial lenders understand that paying their notes first is a priority because they call the soonest if a payment is late. However, supplier's margins are tight, just as dairy producer's margins are. Suppliers are much less likely to carry open accounts for as long or for as much money as they did in the past. Many are hiring specialists to help keep their open accounts to smaller, more manageable levels.

    Call or stop in and visit with the business that you will not be able to pay in full as scheduled. Explain the situation and discuss payment options. Can you stay current from now on and pay off the existing balance over the next few months? Can you negotiate an interest rate less than the 18 to 30% frequently charged on open accounts? Farm suppliers also have businesses to run and bills to pay. They will be much more willing to discuss options before a big balance develops, which hurts their ability to do business as well as your farm's.

    Evaluate. When accounts have unpaid balances, you forgo opportunities to get cash or early payment discounts,which costs your farm additional money. At some point, you will need to discuss an operating line of credit with your lender. If your current line is at maximum, you may be able to refinance some or all of the debt over a longer term. Extreme caution must be used before this strategy is followed. You must take a serious look at why the credit was allowed to reach the maximum limit. Was the line of credit truly used for operating expenses (such as feed, seed, fertilizer, supplies, etc.,) or was it used to buy cattle, equipment, machinery, or other items that should have been financed over a longer period of time to begin with?

    If longer-term assets were purchased with the line of credit, the lender may fairly easily be able to refinance those over a longer term. If not, refinancing may be more difficult and costly. It is vital for the long-term survival of your dairy enterprise that current debt (whether it was used for operating or longer term expenses) not be rolled over into longer-term debt without determining why it was necessary and carefully planning, monitoring profitability, and cash flow in the future. A successful farm cannot afford to do this more than once or twice during its business lifetime.

    Plan. Planning is important from two perspectives. First, thoughtfully and realistically develop a payment plan to pay off balances on open accounts, while keeping current with new purchases. No one is saying that this process will be easy. Planned purchases or projects may have to be delayed. The "extra" labor that just quit may temporarily not be replaced. If a workable plan cannot be developed, then hard questions have to be asked about the long-term viability of the farm as it currently operates.

    What were the factors that brought the farm to this situation? Beyond the major factors of price and drought, each farm's situation will be slightly different. Then ask the hard questions such as "How can we be sure this will not happen again?" "What were some of the signals that we should have seen earlier?" "What were some of the actions we could have taken earlier to prevent the situation from getting as far as it did?"

    Finally, keep talking. There may still be bumps in the best-made plans. Keeping family and creditors informed and talking keeps the lines of communication and understanding open and reduces the stress during tight times for all involved.

  6. Livestock Need Fresh Air

    John Smith

    Just because it is winter and cold outsid,e don't close up the livestock buildings. Good ventilation is important to animals as well as humans, all year around.

    When the weather turns cold, the natural tendency is to shut the livestock buildings up to keep them warmer. This traps moisture, odors, and gases in the building. Fresh air in the building is important to the health of the animals and the people taking care of them.

    Poor ventilation can cause poor animal response to growth and production due to respiratory problems. Odors, high humidity, and condensation of moisture on the walls are an indication of poor ventilation. Good ventilation in a livestock building will remove air-borne diseases, excess moisture, and gases.

    Some ventilation tips from Dr. Mike Veenhuizen, Consultant, and Agricultural Engineer:

    1. Don't completely close other vents and exhaust openings needed to bring in the proper amount of fresh air in wintertime. Fresh air is needed; drafts aren't.

    2. You can cut drafts in long buildings by building partitions across the building from floor to ceiling every 50 feet to 75 feet.

    3. Don't close windward air inlets; it will create negative air pressure in the building and draw snow and cold air down through ridge vents.

    4. Use hovers - low hanging ceilings - or heat lamps over small animals. This is especially helpful in swine buildings where baby pigs need a much warmer environment than the sow.

    5. Keep fan shutters and blades clean - dirty blades alone can cut your ventilation capacity as much as 40 % and add to the dust in the building.

    6. Make sure thermostats and controls are calibrated to keep mild weather ventilation fans and heaters from running at the same time.

    7. If the building has a manure storage pit under it, be absolutely sure that the pit is properly ventilated: Fumes backing up into the building can be deadly.