Nutrient Prices, Nutrient Costs, and Income Over Nutrient Costs

Dr. Normand St-Pierre, Dairy Management Specialist, Ohio State University

In this column, I periodically use a software program that we developed here at Ohio State (SESAME) to estimate the cost of major nutrients required for milk production and break-even prices of feed commodities in Ohio. Results can be used to identify potential feed bargains or feeds that appear overpriced. Based on wholesale prices, central Ohio, commodities can be partitioned into the three following groups in mid-September 2004.

Bargains
At Breakeven
Overpriced

Bakery byproducts
Corn, ground, shelled
Corn silage
Distillers dried grains
Feather meal
Gluten feed
Gluten meal
Hominy
Wheat middlings
 

Alfalfa hay
Blood meal
Brewers grains, wet
Canola meal
Whole cottonseed
Molasses
Expeller soybean meal
48% soybean meal
Tallow
Wheat bran

Beet pulp
Citrus pulp
Fishmeal
Meat meal
Soybean hulls
44% soybean meal
Roasted soybeans
 

Details on the estimates of nutrient unit costs, break-even prices of commodities, and break-even prices of forages are given in Tables 1, 2, and 3. For forages, the column labeled "corrected" uses correction factors that Dr. Bill Weiss and I have developed. These corrected break-even prices are more accurate and should be used when making purchasing decisions.

Table 1. Estimates of nutrient unit costs.

Nutrient name1
Estimates2
 
NEL - 3X (2001 NRC)
$0.086
**
RDP
$-0.051
~
Digestible RUP
$0.227
**
Non-effective NDF (ne-NDF)
$-0.041
*
e-NDF
$0.061
*

1NEL = Net energy for lactation, RDP = rumen degradable protein, RUP = rumen undegradable protein, ne-NDF = noneffective neutral detergent fiber, and e-NDF = effective neutral effective fiber.
2Estimates are for $/LB except for energy which is at $/Mcal.
- A blank means that the nutrient unit cost is likely equal to zero.
- ~ means that the nutrient cost may be close to zero.
- * means that the nutrient cost is unlikely to be equal to zero.
- **means that the nutrient cost is most likely not equal to zero.


Table 2. Estimated break-even prices of commodities - OH.

Name
Actual ($/ton)
Predicted ($/ton)
Lower limit ($/ton)
Upper limit ($/ton)
Alfalfa Hay, OH Buckeye D
120
129.08
109.00
149.15
Bakery Byproduct Meal
122
139.00
129.91
148.10
Beet Sugar Pulp, dried
155
118.14
103.76
132.53
Blood Meal, ring dried
425
387.32
363.43
411.21
Brewers Grains, wet
30
28.95
25.79
32.10
Canola Meal, mech. extracted
145
133.79
121.95
145.63
Citrus Pulp, dried
136
117.35
109.58
125.11
Corn Grain, ground dry
100
143.42
134.78
152.12
Corn Silage, 32 to 38% DM
35
51.23
44.86
57.61
Cottonseed, whole w lint
196
193.48
170.14
216.81
Distillers Dried Grains, w sol
120
149.33
137.29
161.37
Feathers Hydrolyzed Meal
255
292.35
276.11
308.58
Gluten Feed, dry
87
128.04
118.99
137.08
Gluten Meal, dry
287
320.85
303.21
338.49
Hominy
109
124.31
116.46
132.17
Meat Meal, rendered
250
226.37
210.33
242.41
Molasses, sugarcane
110
99.17
91.80
106.55
Soybean Hulls
116
71.42
50.87
91.96
Soybean Meal, expellers
257
267.71
255.18
280.33
Soybean Meal, solvent 44% CP
211
179.41
163.47
195.34
Soybean Meal, solvent 48% CP
222
209.98
195.94
224.01
Soybean Seeds, whole roasted
268
253.93
240.10
267.76
Tallow
370
354.19
324.72
383.67
Wheat Bran
73
80.97
67.14
94.81
Wheat Middlings
66
94.60
82.52
106.68


Table 3. Break-even prices of forages - OH (mg = mostly grass).

Name
Predicted [$/ton]
Corrected [$/ton]
Grass Hay, Immature, <55% NDF
142.14
154.12
Grass Hay, Mature, >60% NDF
148.72
91.68
Grass Hay, Mid mature, 55-60% NDF
140.85
124.32
Grass Hay, all samples
146.69
104.50
Grass-Leg Hay, mg, immature <51% NDF
142.24
138.35
Grass-Leg Hay, mg, mature >57% NDF
144.29
94.52
Grass-Leg Hay, mg, mid mature 51-57% NDF
144.30
120.11
Grass-Leg Hay, 50/50 mix, immature
134.45
145.27
Leg Hay, immature, <40% NDF
125.57
152.79
Leg Hay, mature, >46% NDF
119.11
94.84
Leg Hay, mid mature, 40-46% NDF
118.79
122.66

We know relatively well the nutrients required to produce a certain amount of milk. Now that we have a method for calculating the implicit costs of nutrients, it is relatively straightforward to calculate a benchmark of nutrient costs and income over nutrient costs. The benchmarks published in this column will be for a 1350 LB cow producing 75 LB/day of milk at 3.6% fat, 3.0% protein, and 5.9% other solids. Component prices are those paid in the previous month (we don't know yet what component prices will be in September), whereas the nutrient prices are those for the reported month (i.e., based on September 2004 commodity prices for the September 2004 nutrient prices). Results for this month are compared with those of July 2004 and September 2003 in Table 4.


Table 4. Nutrient costs, milk gross income, and income over nutrient costs.1

Nutrient
September 2004
July 2004
September 2003
 
------------------------------ $/cow/day --------------------------------
Nutrient costs2      

NEL

2.97
3.00
2.93

RDP

-0.27
0.12
-0.06

Digestible-RUP

0.49
0.74
0.36

ne-NDF

-0.19
-0.27
-0.19

e-NDF

0.67
0.58
0.92

Vitamins and minerals

0.20
0.20
0.20

Total

4.21
4.10
4.63
Milk gross income      

Fat

4.84
5.88
3.38

Protein

5.55
6.99
7.07

Other solids

0.30
0.59
0.01

Total

10.69
13.46
10.46
       
Income over nutrient costs
6.83
9.09
6.30

1Costs and income for 75 LB/cow/day, 3.6% fat, 3.0% protein, and 5.9% other solids.
2NEL = Net energy for lactation, RDP = rumen degradable protein, RUP = rumen undegradable protein, ne-NDF = noneffective neutral detergent fiber, and e-NDF = effective neutral effective fiber.

To put these numbers in perspective, the long-term nutrient costs would average about $4.00/cow/day, milk gross income, $9.75/cow/day, and income over nutrient costs about $5.75/cow/day. Thus, although milk prices have dropped from their early summer highs, reduction in commodity prices result in a benchmark income over nutrient costs that currently exceeds the expected long-term average by 6.83 - 5.75 = $1.08/cow/day. In a well managed herd of 100 milking cows, this equates to an additional $3,240/month over the long-term average. This should help compensate for the terrible months this industry went through recently.