Nutrient Prices - Seasonal Increases, High Returns

Dr. Normand St-Pierre, Dairy Management Specialist, Ohio State University

Markets of both primary feeds (grains and oilseeds) and by-product feeds (e.g., corn gluten feed and distillers dried grains) have been very steady since the Presidential election. Thus, the implicit prices of nutrients have changed little since November (Table 1). The average cost of energy is slightly higher due to the seasonal rise in the price of fat sources. Rumen degradable protein (RDP) can be sourced through some commodities at much discounted prices. Thus, unless there are other compelling reasons, this is not a time to feed rations with tight margins of safety for RDP. The fiber sub-groups are at about their historical averages.

Table 1. Estimates of nutrient unit costs.1,2

Nutrient name
January 05
November 04
January 04
NEL - 3X (2001 NRC)
0.082
0.072
0.066
RDP
-0.072
-0.066
0.065
Digestible RUP
0.211
0.180
0.259
Non-effective NDF (ne-NDF)
-0.043
-0.022
-0.008
Effective-NDF
0.050
0.060
0.063

1NEL = Net energy for lactation, RDP = rumen degradable protein, RUP = rumen undegradable protein, and NDF = neutral detergent fiber.
2Estimates are for $/lb, except for energy which is at $/Mcal.

Details on break-even prices of commodities and forages of various qualities as calculated by the software Sesame v3.01 are provided in Tables 2 and 3. Recall that for forages, the column labeled "corrected" uses the correction factors developed by Dr. Bill Weiss at O.A.R.D.C. in Wooster and are probably the best break-even figures to use for forages.

Table 2. Estimated break-even prices of commodities - OH.

Name
Actual ($/ton)
Predicted ($/ton)
Lower limit ($/ton)
Upper limit ($/ton)
Alfalfa Hay, OH Buckeye D
110
109.06
91.55
126.58
Bakery Byproduct Meal
103
127.70
119.76
135.64
Beet Sugar Pulp, dried
155
106.76
94.20
119.31
Blood Meal, ring dried
360
354.51
333.67
375.36
Brewers Grains, wet
28
24.61
21.86
27.36
Canola Meal, mech. extracted
148.5
113.75
103.42
124.09
Citrus Pulp, dried
127
107.60
100.83
114.38
Corn Grain, ground dry
97
133.74
126.15
141.34
Corn Silage, 32 to 38% DM
32
45.43
39.87
51.00
Cottonseed, whole w lint
158
168
147.65
188.36
Distillers Dried Grains, w solubles
109
132.49
121.98
143.00
Feathers Hydrolyzed Meal
235
260.94
246.77
275.11
Gluten Feed, dry
79
111.02
103.12
118.91
Gluten Meal, dry
310
294.06
278.66
309.45
Hominy
87
113.34
106.49
120.19
Meat Meal, rendered
220
200.29
186.29
214.28
Molasses, sugarcane
125
92.79
86.36
99.23
Soybean Hulls
72
60.52
42.59
78.45
Soybean Meal, expeller
221.5
244.52
233.59
255.45
Soybean Meal, solvent 44% CP
177.5
154.65
140.75
168.56
Soybean Meal, solvent 48% CP
186.5
184.39
172.15
196.64
Soybean Seeds, whole roasted
225
225.88
213.81
237.95
Tallow
350
337.68
311.96
363.40
Wheat Bran
72
68.55
56.49
80.62
Wheat Middlings
65
81.58
71.05
92.12

Table 3. Break-even prices of forages - OH (mg = mostly grass).

Name
Predicted [$/ton]
Corrected [$/ton]
Grass Hay, immature, < 55% NDF
122.08
138.06
Grass Hay, mature, > 60% NDF
128.45
71.41
Grass Hay, mid mature, 55-60% NDF
121.57
105.04
Grass Hay, all samples
126.20
84.04
Grass-Leg Hay, mg, immature < 51% NDF
121.94
118.05
Grass-Leg Hay, mg, mature > 57% NDF
124.29
74.52
Grass-Leg Hay, mg, mid mature 51-57% NDF
123.26
99.08
Grass-Leg Hay, 50/50 mix, immature
114.99
125.80
Leg Hay, immature, < 40% NDF
106.68
133.89
Leg Hay, mature, > 46% NDF
100.50
76.23
Leg Hay, mid mature, 40-46% NDF
100.05
103.92
Leg Silage, immature, < 40% NDF
49.45
62.07
Leg Silage, mature, > 46% NDF
45.94
35.21
Leg Silage, mid mature, 40-46% NDF
45.17
46.61

As usual in this column, we calculated the costs of feeding these nutrients for a 1350 lb cow producing 75 lb/day of milk at 3.6% fat, 3.1% protein, and 5.9% other solids. Component prices used in Table 4 are those paid in Federal Order 33 for the month preceding each column. The cost of providing the nutrients to support this milk production is slightly up ($0.20/cow/day) compared to November 2004, but considerably less ($0.59/cow/day) than the same costs a year ago. This, combined with much above average prices for milk fat, protein, and other milk solids, results in a very high figure for income over nutrient costs (IONC; the historical average is approximately $6.50/cow/day in Ohio). In fact, the IONC for January 2005 is nearly twice the estimate for January 2004. These historical high margins should help our producers recover from the devastating milk prices that they experienced in 2003 and part of 2004.

Table 4. Nutrient costs, milk gross income, and income over nutrient costs - Ohio.1

Nutrient
January 2005
November 2004
January 2004
 
------------------------------ $/cow/day --------------------------------
Nutrient costs2      

NEL

2.85
2.49
2.30

RDP

-0.38
-0.35
0.35

Digestible-RUP

0.48
0.41
0.59

ne-NDF

-0.20
-0.10
-0.04

e-NDF

0.54
0.65
0.69

Vitamins and minerals

0.20
0.20
0.20

TOTAL

3.49
3.29
4.08
Milk gross income      

Fat

5.50
5.14
3.70

Protein

6.62
5.54
5.35

Other solids

0.38
0.30
0.16

TOTAL

12.50
10.97
9.20
       
Income over nutrient costs
9.01
7.68
5.12

1Costs and income for a cow producing 75 lb/day of milk, with 3.6% fat, 3.0% protein, and 5.9% other solids.
2NEL = Net energy for lactation, RDP = rumen degradable protein, RUP = rumen undegradable protein, ne-NDF = noneffective neutral detergent fiber, and e-NDF = effective neutral effective fiber.