Dr. Normand St-Pierre, Dairy Management Specialist, The Ohio State University
Feed and dairy markets have been relatively stable this fall, with little change expected in the near future. On the feed side, there were concerns for the cottonseed and its by-products from damages caused by Katrina. So far, there has been no measurable effect.
Milk prices still are amazingly resilient to substantial increases in supply, a consequence of greater average productivity, as well as an increase in the national herd.
Prices of nutrients, as calculated by SESAME using early November prices, are in Table 1. Feed commodity prices and their calculated break-even prices are reported in Table 2.
Calculated income over nutrient costs went up by $0.56/cow/day between September and November 2005 (Table 3). Historically, we are experiencing strong returns in milk production. This should make for a nice Christmas among our family of dairy producers.
Table 1. Prices of nutrients, central Ohio.
| Nutrient name |
Estimate
|
|
| Net energy lactation - 3X ($/Mcal) |
0.083407
|
**
|
| Rumen degradable protein ($/lb) |
-0.148448
|
*
|
| Digestible-rumen undegradable protein ($/lb) |
0.332989
|
**
|
| Non-effective NDF ($/lb) |
-0.045611
|
~
|
| Effective-NDF ($/lb) |
0.066382
|
~
|
- A blank means that the nutrient unit cost is likely equal to zero.
- ~ means that the nutrient unit cost may be close to zero
- * means that the nutrient unit cost is unlikely to be equal to zero
-**means that the nutrient unit cost is most likely not equal to zero
Table 2. Commodity assessment, Central Ohio, November 2005.
| Name |
Actual ($/ton)
|
Predicted ($/ton)
|
Lower limit ($/ton)
|
Upper limit ($/ton)
|
| Alfalfa Hay, 44% NDF, 20% CP |
120
|
100.23
|
74.18
|
126.28
|
| Bakery Byproduct Meal |
102
|
122.15
|
109.41
|
134.89
|
| Beet Sugar Pulp, dried |
145
|
120.99
|
100.95
|
141.05
|
| Blood Meal, ring dried |
515
|
457.22
|
423.98
|
490.46
|
| Brewers Grains, wet |
26
|
23.58
|
19.29
|
27.87
|
| Canola Meal, mech. extracted |
161.50
|
105.11
|
89.03 |
121.19
|
| Citrus Pulp, dried |
187
|
108.17
|
97.32
|
119.01
|
| Corn Grain, ground dry |
90
|
137.03
|
124.86
|
149.20
|
| Corn Silage, 32 to 38% DM |
35
|
48.23
|
39.21
|
57.39
|
| Cotton Seed Meal, 41% CP |
182
|
170.67
|
157.08
|
184.26
|
| Cottonseed, whole w lint |
139
|
169.68
|
136.13
|
203.24
|
| Distillers Dried Grains, w solubles |
108
|
139.32
|
122.70
|
155.93
|
| Feathers Hydrolyzed Meal |
245
|
306.62
|
284.27
|
328.96
|
| Gluten Feed, dry |
73
|
105.83
|
93.51
|
118.15
|
| Gluten Meal, dry |
367
|
369.13
|
344.56
|
393.68
|
| Hominy |
90
|
110.82
|
99.85
|
121.78
|
| Meat Meal, rendered |
210
|
208.65
|
186.43
|
230.86
|
| Molasses, sugarcane |
144
|
90.60
|
80.32
|
100.88
|
| Soybean Hulls |
82
|
58.14
|
29.59
|
86.69
|
| Soybean Meal, expeller |
231.40
|
292.62
|
275.24
|
309.99
|
| Soybean Meal, solvent 44% CP |
186.40
|
147.59
|
125.67
|
169.51
|
| Soybean Meal, solvent 48% CP |
196.40
|
191.06
|
171.76
|
210.37
|
| Soybean Seeds, whole roasted |
237
|
231
|
211.56
|
250.44
|
| Tallow |
350
|
342.34
|
301.43
|
383.25
|
| Wheat Bran |
48
|
55.37
|
36.23
|
74.52
|
| Wheat Middlings |
41
|
70.86
|
54.15
|
87.58
|
Table 3. Nutrient costs and income over nutrient costs, Central Ohio.1
| Nutrient |
November 2005
|
September 2005
|
|
------------------------------ $/cow/day --------------------------------
|
||
| Nutrient costs2 |
|
|
|
2.89
|
2.61
|
|
(0.79)
|
(0.39)
|
|
0.75
|
0.68
|
|
(0.21)
|
(0.25)
|
|
0.72
|
0.70
|
|
0.20
|
0.20
|
|
3.57
|
3.55
|
| Milk gross income |
|
|
|
4.93
|
4.93
|
|
5.53
|
5.03
|
|
0.66
|
0.58
|
|
11.12
|
10.54
|
|
|
|
|
| Income over nutrient costs |
7.55
|
6.99
|
1Costs and income for a 1400 lb cow producing 75 lb/day of milk, with 3.6% fat, 3.1% protein, and 5.9% other solids. Component prices are for Federal Order 33, August 2005.
2NEL = Net energy for lactation, RDP = rumen degradable protein, RUP = rumen undegradable protein, ne-NDF = noneffective neutral detergent fiber, and e-NDF = effective neutral effective fiber.